World Economic Forum members participating in the organisation’s Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS) were asked to identify risks which will become critical threats to the world. The results were published in the institution’s Global Risks Report 2021. And, in order of severity, the following themes were singled-out as threats that could occur within the next two years: infectious diseases (58%), livelihood crises (55.1%), extreme weather conditions (52.7%) and cybersecurity failure (39%).
Their predictions have by and large come to pass.
Firstly, infectious diseases. While the COVID 19 pandemic threat has dissipated due to a successful vaccine rollout, concern continues to grow about rising Monkey Pox infections, leading the WHO to declare it a “public health emergency of international concern.” Secondly, even though the livelihoods referred to in the GRPS survey specifically addressed youth disillusionment and digital inequality, the term could easily apply to current inflationary pressures, which continue to erode consumers’ purchasing power. This has resulted in the Bank of England raising interest rates, the sixth time since December 2021, as it attempts to curtail rising inflation. And lastly, recent heatwaves across Europe saw UK temperatures exceed 40℃ causing country-wide disruption and London’s fire brigade experiencing its busiest day since WW2.
Should attention now be on the fourth?
As mentioned earlier, cybersecurity failure was the report’s fourth threat. Quoting figures from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and [1]Specops Software, a cybersecurity service, the report states that between 2006 and 2020, the UK and US recorded 47 and 156 significant[2] cyberattacks, respectively—making these two countries top of its list.
While these headline figures may not seem alarming, the term significant refers to attacks “on a country’s government agencies, defence and high-tech companies, or economic crimes equating to a loss of more than a million dollars.” This means at the very least the problem could be much greater when smaller sums are taken into consideration.
And it is.
Research published in 2020 by Cybersecurity Ventures estimated that in 2021, cybercrime would total USD 6tn globally—making it the third largest country in GDP terms after the US and China. Furthermore, it is also expected to grow by 15% every year over the next five years, representing “the greatest transfer of economic wealth in history.”
Where does this leave the average online user? Improved online safety from service providers (banks, insurance companies) coupled with better media coverage of phishing (bogus emails sent in an attempt to steal user data) and man-in-the-middle attacks have led to more vigilance online. This may have inadvertently lulled users into a false sense of security, as the problem is not just about online behaviour but is also about the safety mechanisms third parties such as managed services (e.g., data centres) have put in place to protect our data; and these are increasingly vulnerable to cybersecurity attacks.
In its National Cyber Strategy 2022 report, the UK government acknowledged the risks faced by managed services but offered no implementation strategies beyond providing regulatory oversight by “strengthening and expanding existing regulation and boosting the capabilities of the ICO[3].” This means for now the risks continue to remain high.
[1] The data quoted by Specops Software analyses is from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
[2] Significant cyber-attacks are those which affect a country’s government agencies, defence and high-tech companies. It also includes economic crimes with losses of more than $1mn.
[3] HM Government National Cyber Strategy 2022